The event of the year! (maybe)

Long-overdue Mackenzie pipeline report to be issued Wednesday Canada.com

Well, they ran counter to their own press directive, but the Joint Review Panel has announced that their long-awaited socio-economic and environmental report on the proposed Mackenzie Valley gas line will (finally) be released tomorrow.

I don't think it's overstating to call this the single most important event to happen in the course of development of either of the major northern pipeline projects of 2009, even if it comes on the penultimate day of said year.

What are the odds? is it a definite "no"? (highly unlikely), or with no controversial recommendations that may slow development? (more likely, but not by much)

The nay-sayers will be out, either worrying about the threat to the Alaska line (there is none; the Alaska line won't proceed until Mackenzie is either finished or definitively killed off), or will once again question the economics in the light of "plentiful" (but pricey and controversial) shale gas.

And what about the environmentalists? Well, the World Wildlife Fund is actually neutral on the Mackenzie gas line, granting that the proponents have already done quite a bit in their routing and engineering to protect sensitive areas. The Sierra Club doesn't oppose the line per se (though they have expressed concern that the gas will be used to fuel tar sands extraction). Environmentalists as a group aren't likely to present the greatest obstacle in the JRP's report.

The sections dealing with potential social impacts will likely see the most scrutiny when the report is released tomorrow. While there is already some modest affluence in the communities along the route of the line, there is considerable concern that a sudden flood of cash to the region may fuel addictions, domestic violence, and other social concerns. These are difficult, complicated issues with no simple resolution short of turning the line down flat.

A flat turn-down is extremely unlikely, though. Judge Thomas Berger recommended a moratorium on building this line back in the early 80s, citing the need to settle native land claims and give this population more time to assess the impacts. These goals have been mostly been reached, and First Nations along the line have been given a significant piece of equity in the project through the Aboriginal Pipeline Group. This group now stands to lose millions if the project doesn't proceed.

The JRP has taken far longer than anticipated, but there's an upside to that: the time it has taken to prepare this report adds to its credibility. The JRP can hardly be accused of rushing.