Inuvik Getting Antsy

http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=1750698

Not bad piece on the general air of frustration around the construction delays on the Mackenzie Valley project, and how long it's taken for the Joint Review Panel to release its final report.

The JRP wasn't such a bad idea. Get representatives from stakeholder groups, have them listen to submissions from virtually everyone, and try to reach a consensus that may not make everyone happy, but would hopefully leave all concerned "equally unhappy".

Since there was no deadline, though, the process sprawled from the 10 months it was originally anticipated to take to almost 4 years. And that's assuming they actually make their proposed deadline of this coming December for their report's release.

What's done is done. Their work cannot be accelerated, apparently. Pius Rohlheiser from Imperial Oil offered his company's resources if the JRP needed any help, but that may have seemed too much like a conflict of interest. The big question is, will it matter?

Personally, I don't think so. There's been some benefit from this delay, believe it or not, and it might be just enough to get this project over the hump:

1. Construction costs have declined with the global recession. This project might actually be cheaper to build now.
2. The recession itself has made many people take a long, hard look at the abyss; a project that stimulates the economy and provides long-term revenue both for regional businesses and the GNWT (if only in the form of taxes) is more attractive now than it might have been a year ago.
3. Generally broader support for "green" initiatives makes this an easier project to support from a political point of view

There is one other argument, though, that requires a bit more of a leap of faith to overcome: what about those shales? Those massive deposits of NG uncovered in the American south and Northern BC?

In a perverse way, these, too might help the overall economics of the northern pipeline projects. Cheap, easy-to-reach NG will pull prices down, and stimulate demand (bear in mind that a lot of US's electricity generating capacity either is currently NG, or can be quickly converted). New, long-term demand will squeeze supply, and by the time these pipelines are completed, there will be lots of demande for them to serve.

North America will need the gas from the Mackenzie Valley and Alaska Highway pipelines. This is as true now as it was 20 years ago, and it will still be true 20 years from now.